Counting the Electoral Votes
Two questions from my family today. First, my youngest asked me “who are Democrats”. My answer: “People who don’t know better.” For the record, I did offer a more teachable answer but on this page I stand by my original comment. Second question was from Mrs. Tincup9. “Do you think Romney can win”? She is seeing the same RCP polls you are and despite my objections, had CNBC on this morning.
Yes, Romney will win.
Obama’s 2008 win was a wave. George was deeply unpopular. After 8 years, Democrats were in a near frenzy to vote. McCain ran a terrible campaign. The press painted a portrait of a moderate, post-racial, post-partisan candidate on the canvas that was Obama. Well 4 year later none of that holds true. Obama has been exposed and over exposed as the most liberal progressive President in history. Unemployment is as high today as when Obama assumed office, despite $6T in new debt. His tax and regulatory policies have stunted what little recovery the economy tried to produce so we limp along at 1.5% growth. He has divided this nation along class, religious, party and racial lines like no one before him. He has run one of the nastiest, smallest campaigns in history.
His campaign – when not trying to demonize half this country – is built around asking the other half for more time. A pure admission he didn’t accomplish anything he promised, but hey, just give him more time. More time? We defeated Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan in 3.5 years. Obama hasn’t passed a budget in 3 years. He has only made things worse. He has had enough time.
Which brings me to the final polls. Ironically, all polls start in the same place. Who are you voting for? It is how they are assembled that creates a top line + or – for or against your candidate. This year, democratic pollsters are assuming a heavy Democrat turnout in the election, a la 2008 or better. Republican pollsters believe any Democratic advantage will be small, if it at all. That 2010 and historical turnout excluding 2008 is a better indicator. Who is right? We will know Wednesday (please no recounts) but common sense tells me it’s the Republicans. No one, except Bill Clinton, is more excited about Obama this year. Enthusiasm is down. He has been viewed as a disappointment on both sides of the aisle, for different reasons, but a disappointment none the less. Obama will get no cross over Republican votes and the GOP can’t wait to vote. 2008 early voting advantages that built an all but insurmountable lead for Obama ahead of election day are all but gone this cycle. Then there are the Independents. Romney is up by double digits with this group in almost every poll. Republican turnout would need to be suppressed for Obama to overcome that kind of deficit. Rally’s in Ohio and Pennsylvania this weekend don’t paint that picture.
Four years ago we elected an ideologue community organizer with no experience to the White House. Four years later we have a chance to elect a former Governor and successful businessman to the Oval Office. Mitt Romney will return certainty to the tax code and business regulations. He understands that businesses need clear rules to play by, not restrictions to hold them back. He understands our economy grows the middle class, not government. He understands we are adding debt at an unsustainable rate. He understands fairness really means giving everyone an equal opportunity, not redistributing the results. He has demonstrated an ability to reach across the aisle and get things done. He has a vision and is asking you to vote for love of country.
Mitt Romney for President.
Based on the above, my electoral assumptions mean either Mitt wins by two touchdowns or loses by a field goal in overtime. Virginia and Pennsylvania will be the two early bell weather states. If Obama wins Virginia, go to bed, it’s over. If Romney wins Pennsylvania, open the Champagne and enjoy your evening. If Romney wins VA close but loses PA close – Oh my… buckle up. I’m going with the two touchdowns. My ‘final map’.