Polls show Romney support among critical swing voting blocks surging while Obama’s 2008 coalition erodes
MOCGATOR, this one is for you… Two things to watch over the coming days. How much of Obama’s 2008 early voting advantage can Romney blunt. So far, the answer is all of it. The other is Obama’s final poll numbers. Incumbents usually finish within a point of their final RCP average. Obama at 47% suggests a 52-48 Mitt win…
The latest Politico battleground poll, released earlier this week, shows Romney with a massive 19-point lead over Obama among suburban voters. Surprisingly, it’s actually one point higher than his lead among rural voters. Obama leads among urban voters by 29 points. In 2008, Obama won the suburban vote by 2 points. The 21-point swing away from him makes his reelection very difficult.
Obama’s approval rating among suburban voters is deeply underwater. Just 42% approve of the job he is doing, against 57% who disapprove. A staggering 52% disapprove strongly. Romney has a net 23 approval rating among suburban voters, 59% approving with 36% disapproving.
Over the past 30 years, no one has won the presidency without winning the suburban vote. Bill Clinton’s successful campaigns were built on getting strong support from suburban voters. To some extent, Obama inherited much of the goodwill Clinton earned with this important voting block. Yet, in just four years, Obama seems to have squandered that.
As the suburbs go, so goes the nation. Today, at least, the suburbs are going with Romney.
It’s the math stupid:
My thesis, and that of a good many conservative skeptics of the 538 model, is that these internals are telling an entirely different story than some of the toplines: that Obama is getting clobbered with independent voters, traditionally the largest variable in any election and especially in a presidential election, where both sides will usually have sophisticated, well-funded turnout operations in the field. He’s on track to lose independents by double digits nationally, and the last three candidates to do that were Dukakis, Mondale and Carter in 1980. And he’s not balancing that with any particular crossover advantage (i.e., drawing more crossover Republican voters than Romney is drawing crossover Democratic voters). Similar trends are apparent throughout the state-by-state polls, not in every single poll but in enough of them to show a clear trend all over the battleground states…
…We can’t know until Election Day who is right. I stand by my view that Obama is losing independent voters decisively, because the national and state polls both support that thesis. I stand by my view that Republican turnout will be up significantly from recent-historic lows in 2008 in the key swing states (Ohio, Wisconsin, Colorado) and nationally, because the post-2008 elections, the party registration data, the early-voting and absentee-ballot numbers, and the Rasmussen and Gallup national party-ID surveys (both of which have solid track records) all point to this conclusion. I stand by my view that no countervailing evidence outside of poll samples shows a similar surge above 2008 levels in Democratic voter turnout, as would be needed to offset Romney’s advantage with independents and increased GOP voter turnout. And I stand by the view that a mechanical reading of polling averages is an inadequate basis to project an event unprecedented in American history: the re-election of a sitting president without a clear-cut victory in the national popular vote.
Perhaps, despite the paucity of evidence to the contrary, these assumptions are wrong. But if they are correct, no mathematical model can provide a convincing explanation of how Obama is going to win re-election. He remains toast.
More fun with numbers:
In 2008 in Virginia, Democrats had a six-point turnout advantage at the polls (39% to 33%), and independents made up 27% of the electorate. But in the D +7 PPP poll, which found Obama leading Mitt Romney by three points, the partisan breakdown is as follows:
In 2008, Obama received 92% of the black vote in Virginia. McCain received 8%. In PPP’s poll, Obama receives only 86% of the black vote while Romney receives 11%, which is a nine-point spread.
Yet, PPP believes Democrats will have a greater turnout advantage over Republicans than in 2008. PPP interviewed 600 likely Virginia voters between October 30-31, and the poll’s margin of error is +/- 4%.
This is the formula for the Dems and corrupt media. Assume 2012 will replicate or exceed Obama’s 2008 Hope and Change concert tour and under sample Independents where Romney has huge leads. We will know next Wednesday who was right…