New Gallup Poll Blows Apart All Assumptions of Electorate Mix – GOP with EDGE in 2012!!!
This morning, Gallup released a bombshell survey of likely voters this November. It wasn’t a horse race poll, i.e. which candidate is ahead, but rather a look at the underlying demographics that will make up the electorate this November. They slap the survey with a very misleading headline, “2012 U.S. Electorate Looks Like 2008.” While this is true in many respects, it obscures one very big difference. For the first time in a presidential election, more Republicans will vote than Democrats.
In 2008, 54% of likely voters identified as Democrat or lean Democrat. 42% of likely voters identified as GOP or lean GOP. In other words, the electorate, including independents who lean towards a particular party, was D+12. This year, however, the Democrat advantage has disappeared. 49% of likely voters today identify as GOP or lean GOP. Just 46% of likely voters are or lean towards the Democrats. This is a 15-point swing towards the GOP from 2008 to an outright +3 advantage for the GOP. By comparison, in 2004, when Bush won reelection, the electorate was evenly split, with each party getting support from 48% of likely voters.