Lies, More Lies and Damn Lies – Media Polls being used as Obama campaign tools
Polling has taken a turn for the ugly this year. Polling has become a SuperPac. Realclear politics moved Ohio to Obama today after a Wapo poll has him +7 and a CBS poll has him +10. Obama won Ohio by +4 in 2008. These numbers should be immediately thrown out. Instead, they are being used as weapons. It is truly disgusting. The electorate in no way looks like 2008, but the recent polls would have us believe Dem turnout will be higher.
THIS IS TRUE VOTER DISENFRANCHISEMENT
Do not listen to them – Do not be discouraged. Rasmussen has Romeny 48 vs Obama 46 TODAY
Remind yourself how you felt November 2008 when the 60th Senate seat turned blue. Not only are they over estimating Dem participation, they are SUPPRESSING GOP turnout:
Ohio 2008 exits: 39% Democrat, 31% Republican, 30% Independent.
Ohio New York Times/Quinnipiac 2012 sample: 35% Democrat, 26% Republican, 35% Independent.
In this sample, the partisan split is D+9 compared to D+8 four years ago, and the GOP is five percentage points smaller than in 2008.
Over in the Weekly Standard, Jay Cost looks at recent Ohio polls and “finds Gravis, Washington Post, and Fox basically see a replay of 2008 while Rasmussen and the Purple Poll see roughly something in between 2004 and 2008.” They envision Democrat turnout being on par with last cycle or even better… and this surge of Democratic enthusiasm comes at the same time the president has lost considerable ground among independents. Possible? I suppose, but again, why?
Pennsylvania 2008 exits: 44% Democrat, 37% Republican, 18% Independent.
Pennsylvania New York Times/Quinnipiac 2012 sample: 39% Democrat, 28% Republican, 27% Independent.
Somehow a D+7 split has turned into D+11 split, and Republicans’ share of the electorate is nine percentage points less than they were four years ago.
Florida 2008 exits: 37% Democrat, 34% Republican, 29% Independent.
Florida New York Times/Quinnipiac 2012 sample: 36% Democrat, 27% Republican, 33% Independent.
Each party’s share only shifts a few percentage points, but the overall split goes from D+3 to D+9.