Romney’s Path to 270
Polling data is getting interesting. A couple of tips when reading polls. Anywhere Nobama is under 50% and Romney over 40% is a keep an eye on. Polls that use Registered Voters versus Likely Voters over index to Obama by 2-5 points. The PPP poll is a democratic poll. Margin of error 5-10% for Obama.
Romney’s path to 270? Michigan and Wisconsin are definitely in play, they are red on my map. Florida and NC are currently Romney with Arizona and Ohio likely Romney. Pennsylvania is trending. And look what else is in play; Oregon, Nevada, Colorado… Nobama never dreamed he would need to visit the southwest this year. Maybe he can use that bus he built, the one he bought from Canada.
For much of the presidential campaign, President Obama’s top strategists have outlined their numerous paths to 270 electoral votes: win Florida, sweep the Southwest, or pick off a Southern state or two. But they didn’t prepare for the possibility that working-class white voters in the Rust Belt could abandon the president en masse, throwing his well-laid plans into disarray.
With the economy struggling to pick up steam, three must-win “blue-wall” states are looking increasingly winnable for the Romney campaign: Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Both election results (from the Wisconsin gubernatorial recall) and reputable polling show that all three states are shaping up to be highly competitive, and that both campaigns will be devoting significant resources there.